In this science fiction exercise I make some assumptions of what technologies will become mainstream in the medium term and what this will do to the current Legal publishing landscape.

I am being deliberately vague on time lines as it is impossible to predict when change will happen. By “medium term” I am thinking in the 3 to 10 year time horizon that venture capitalists and start-up entrepreneurs need to build substantial value. This is the start-up planning horizon.

We use the start-up planning horizon, as this is not just science fiction fun, this enables scenario planning. Or, to put it in more popular terms, this enables you to “skate to where the puck is going.”

For the first two posts on Legal publishing, click here and here.

Likely To Happen In Next 3 to 10 Years

1. Law.gov will put all court records online in the public domain.

2. Google will launch a version of Google Scholar that is optimized for legal searching.

3. Many start-ups will launch competing legal search engines. One will get serious traction and it will become a two horse race – Google Legal vs StartUp Legal.

4. The big traditional legal publishers will suffer decline. One of them buys one of the legal search startups and offers serious competition to Google Legal.

5. There will still be a role for custom legal work and face-to-face meetings with lawyers (just like there is still a market for custom suits and custom software) but this will be the exception that proves the rule.

6. New hybrid legal service models emerge – Legal As A Service. The relationship starts online with open source data and standardized, XML tagged documents. Click to call will get an initial consultation with a lawyer in a call center, probably offshore. Premium clients will have a dedicated contact who knows their background; they might occasionally meet for coffee or cocktails!

7. Parents will stop recommending law school. That will lead to a shortage and the cycle will return.

8. The best lawyers currently at the top of their profession will be become (as they are now) trusted advisers on major and critical moves (whether personal or corporate). Their advice will incorporate an understanding of the law but move much beyond that.

9. This will have a positive impact on innovation, value creation and economic growth.

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