Dave McComb of Semantic Arts recently commented on Gartner’s nod to Semantic Technology. McComb writes, “Gartner has, finally, nominated Semantic Technology as one of their Top Technology Trends. We’ve seen this movie before. We know how it ends. Indeed it was Gartner themselves who named the plot trajectory: the ‘hype cycle.’ It’s worth a pause to reflect on why the hype cycle exists. The hype cycle suggests that a new technology follows a development growth path as predictable as egg to caterpillar to chrysalis to butterfly. In the hype cycle, the stages are [pictured above].”

He continues, “Let’s think about the underlying dynamics. At first there is a product or approach that purports to solve an existing problem. If it doesn’t, it falls off the radar. If it does, the implementer and often the implementee get bragging rights at conferences and magazines. They tout the benefits (let’s say, increased inventory turns) and some aspect of the approach that led to the benefit (let’s say, genetic algorithms). A few other firms pick up on the relative advantage being gained by the early adopter, and many actually get the connection between the approach or the technology (genetic algorithms) and the result (increased inventory turns). Up to this point there is no hype cycle, just good old-fashioned diffusion of innovation which has been widely studied since the introduction of hybrid corn in the 1930’s.”

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photo credit: Semantic Arts